Five Year Student Enrollment Projections 2026-27 through 2030-31 Memo and Report

To forecast enrollment at District schools, the Demographics & Enrollment Planning Department (DEP) uses a geographically-based cohort survival model, similar to the one used by the Florida Department of Education (FLDOE) for its enrollment projections and by the U.S. Census Bureau for its population projections. A baseline kindergarten group, or cohort, is first calculated based on birth data obtained from The Bureau of Vital Statistics. The model then uses an "aging" concept that moves the cohort of students into the future and increases or decreases their numbers by attrition rates calculated from the three previous years’ enrollment trends by grade. The resulting projection is then modified to reflect the impact of confounding variables such as trends in residential development, students’ school choice options, the opening and closing of charter schools, and natural disasters which can cause sudden changes in student enrollment.