Student Enrollment Projections & Methodology

  • To forecast enrollment at District schools, the Demographics & Enrollment Planning Department (DEP) uses a geographically-based cohort survival model, similar to the one used by the Florida Department of Education (FLDOE) for its enrollment projections and by the U.S. Census Bureau for its population projections. A baseline kindergarten group, or cohort, is first calculated based on birth data obtained from The Bureau of Vital Statistics. The model then uses an "aging" concept that moves the cohort of students into the future and increases or decreases their numbers by attrition rates calculated from the three previous years’ enrollment trends by grade. The resulting projection is then modified to reflect the impact of confounding variables such as trends in residential development, students’ school choice options, the opening and closing of charter schools, and natural disasters which can cause sudden changes in student enrollment.

    Coronavirus (COVID-19)

    Due to the enrollment anomalies associated with the COVID-19 pandemic and our District opening with 100% online instruction, DEP will not be producing enrollment projections until later in the school year. DEP anticipates that there will be an increase in enrollment, particularly in the early grade levels, after face-to-face learning resumes, but we do not expect to have an accurate assessment of this influx of students until at least November, and possibly not until the beginning of the second semester.

    DEP will continue to monitor enrollment on a daily basis through the reopening of brick-and-mortar facilities, knowing that pandemic conditions will likely continue to impact student counts for many months, and will produce forecasts as soon as we see a clearer picture of future conditions.

Last Modified on October 22, 2020